What is the expected precipitation in eastern Africa in a warming world?


met office came out study on 2010/2011 drought in east africa "human influence on east africa drought":

"researchers used cutting edge 'climate change attribution' techniques quantify how probability of these 2 unusually dry rainy seasons may have changed result of human influence on climate."

"initial research based on 3 models suggests human influence blame between 24% , 99% of increased risk of dry conditions seen during long rains season of 2011. further research seeking narrow down on figure." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release...

interesting because opposite of contained in ipcc ar4 report:

"...the trend pattern in analysis characterised positive rainfall anomalies on northeastern sector of eastern africa (ethiopia, somalia, kenya , northern uganda)...warming associated earlier onset of rainy season on northeastern africa region , late start on southern sector." http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data...

"there increase in annual mean rainfall in east africa." http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data...

ipcc reporting observations show increase in rainfall , climate models predict continuing increase in rainfall in east africa.

why met office blaming human influence on drought in east africa?

the met office came out study on 2010/2011 drought in east africa "human influence on east africa drought": "researchers used cutting edge 'climate change attribution' techniques quantify how probability of these 2 unusually dry rainy seasons may have changed...


Environment Global Warming Next



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